Tahar Mjigal has analyzed 90 years of Wall Street history, and he uncovered patterns that repeat without fail – patterns that could help us avoid a repeat of the recent economic crisis.
Mjigal is a director of risk management at International Capital Management Corp. (ICMC) who holds an MBA in international finance and speaks three languages (Arabic, French and English). In his new book Tactical Management in the Secular Bear Market, Mjigal presents a framework for identifying the phases that signify a bear or a bull market.
He says money managers must change the way they advise clients – and investors themselves must pay close attention to the markets, rather than simply rely on the advice of others.
“You have to do your homework. If you’re not in the right investments or the right sector, your investment’s not going to work for you,” Mjigal says. “Most people come to advisors at age 25 to 30, and they want to be able to retire in their late 50s or early 60s. They’re told that stocks perform well over time, so they don’t worry about market fluctuations. But for many of those people, the market has been flat throughout their career, so now that they’re ready to retire, they can’t afford to.”
According to historic patterns, the economy has to have time to heal. It’s a long cycle, Mjigal says, one that won’t even begin until 2013, later than most analysts are predicting.